Merchant-GPU Market · Chips layer · AI market
as of 2026-07-06
ORANGE (was ORANGE) How was this decided?
Main limiting factor: Supply bottleneck
No tracked calls this run.
Alert: The light is ORANGE because no alert rule fired. Today's raw read was GREEN; the shown color only steps down after two calm runs in a row.
Demand: Demand reads Flat. Biggest pull up: Backlog / purchase commitments - Nvidia is expanding a vendor-financing/backstop program — backstopping GPU purchases in exchange for revenue sharing and agreeing to rent back unused GPUs at fixed rates — with early adopters Firmus (170,000 GPUs) and Sharon AI (40,000 GB300), about 210,000 GPUs combined, following CoreWeave ($6.3B) and Lambda ($1.5B) support deals.
Supply: Supply reads Flat. Biggest pull down: Whole-chain inventory - Nvidia AI-server rack component costs are inflating rapidly — running about 2% to 3% per week, sitting 10% to 15% above baseline, and swinging as much as 40% in a single week — driven by memory and fast storage drives scarcity.
Gap: The gap score is demand minus supply: +0.04 minus -0.03 = +0.07, currently demand-led.
Featured: Shown as the standing headline metric; nothing moved more. Above zero: demand is outrunning supply. Below zero: supply is catching up. (Early signal - about five weeks of history so far.)
Trust: Evidence dates run back to 2026-06-12, with a typical (median) date of 2026-07-02; 0% of it is more than six weeks old. 2 of the 15 ranked signals trace to a primary source.
Raw scores, every finding with its evidence, and the run history